A large part of Brazil's economy relies on
the production of commodities
Continue reading the main storyBrazil has overtaken the UK as the world's sixth largest economy, an economic research group has said.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said its latest World Economic League Table showed Asian countries moving up and European countries falling back.
The CEBR also predicted that the UK economy would overtake France by 2016.
It also said the eurozone economy would shrink 0.6% in 2012 "if the euro problem is solved", or 2% if it is not.
CEBR chief executive Douglas McWilliams told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that Brazil overtaking the UK was part of a growing trend.
"I think it's part of the big economic change, where not only are we seeing a shift from the west to the east, but we're also seeing that countries that produce vital commodities - food and energy and things like that - are doing very well and they're gradually climbing up the economic league table," he said.
A report based on International Monetary Fund data published earlier this year also said the Brazilian economy would overtake the UK in 2011.
Continue reading the main story
Brazilian economy
- GDP: $2.52tn (£1.6tn); CEBR estimate for 2011
- Main exports: manufactured goods, iron ore, coffee, oranges and other agricultural produce
- Exports in 2010 totalled $201.9bn*
- Imports in 2010 of $181.6bn*
- Its main export partners are China, the US and Argentina*
- Government forecasts growth of 3.5% in 2011, compared with 7.5% in 2010
Brazil has a population of about 200 million, more than three times the population of the UK
Brazil's economy grew by 7.5% last year, but the government has cut its growth forecast for 2011 to 3.5% after the economy ground to a halt in the third quarter, with analysts blaming the country's high interest rates and the worsening situation in the eurozone.
And although Brazil currently sells more to China than it imports, Brazilian manufacturers have complained that their industries are being affected by cheap mass-produced goods from the Asian giant.
The CEBR also said that Russia moved up one spot in its league table to ninth in 2011, and predicted that it would rise to fourth spot by 2020.
It predicted that India, the world's 10th biggest economy in 2011, would become the fifth largest by 2020.
And it said European countries would drop down the table, with Germany falling from fourth in 2011 to seventh in 2020, the UK from seventh to eighth, and France from fifth to ninth
CEBR World
Economic League Table
CEBR世界經濟同盟表
|
||
|
Rank
|
2011
|
2020 (forecast)
|
|
1 |
US |
US |
|
2 |
China |
China |
|
3 |
Japan |
Japan |
|
4 |
Germany |
Russia |
|
5 |
France |
India |
|
6 |
Brazil |
Brazil |
|
7 |
UK |
Germany |
|
8 |
Italy |
UK |
|
9 |
Russia |
France |
|
10 |
India |
Ital |
Top ten predictions for 2012 include a country leaving the Euro, economic recession in Europe including the UK, a sharp fall in inflation, a successful Diamond Jubilee and a disappointing Olympics
We have had an amazing 2011 for forecasting success – all those who have ranked forecasts for the UK so far have given us first prize – and we are anxiously awaiting David Smith’s Golden Guru awards when they are published on 8 January in the Sunday Times. We have also had a sort of lifetime achievement award from Citiwire who claim that Cebr and OECD have been the best forecasters of the UK economy since 2004 and from Fasttrack (who are online estate agents )on our house price forecasts who not only say that ‘Cebr are the best of the bunch’ but that our main commercial rivals in this area are ‘shockingly bad’! And after being the first to call the Greek potential default in 2010 we followed up in 2011 by being the first to point out that Italy would also be unable to repay its debt, which has since become conventional wisdom.
Obviously we think that we have got our forecasts less wrong than others because we have a better understanding of what is going on – my background in the Far East enables me to put the UK (and the West’s) position in the world in context , our detailed information from our clients for whom we now run 9 tracker surveys gives us real life data to check up on official statisticians and we have a culture of honesty – we admit our forecasting mistakes and learn from them – which is at odds with at least the way government officials seem to behave. But it could just be good luck!
On our actual top 10 for 2011, we got it right on most. The predicted eurozone crisis emerged as expected; economic growth slowed down worldwide and in the UK; but Germany was not the Western economic superstar – though it did better than some; there was an economic crisis in Japan (though we did not predict the tsunami); inflation was not lower than conventionally expected (it was higher and notably higher than we thought…); it was a tough year for consumers; online and the tech industry continued to drive business; but banks did not resume lending because the euro crisis created a second financial crisis; UK house prices have probably ended slightly down on the year (-2.1% on the Chesterton Humberts poll of polls) – close to our forecast of no net change. For our infamous sporting predictions, we got right Manchester United for the League, New Zealand to win the rugby world cup and India to win the cricket world cup. We also predicted that England would beat Sri Lanka in the Test series but said that India would beat England – whereas the result was a 4-0 whitewash to England. We wrongly predicted Real Madrid for the Champions League, which was won by Barcelona in some style.
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